By Prayitno Ramelan
Shocking news came from North Korea on December 17, when the North Korean government announced that Kim Jong-il eccentric and authoritarian rulers of North Korea died on December 17, 2011 at 08.30 am on the train. The cause of death is expected due to a heart attack. The obituary son of Kim Il-sung was withheld for 48 hours, and even the South Korean government and the U.S. also did not know it.
The closely held state secret by the authorities and society, to the analysts to even mention this is a proof of Asian and American intelligence failures in monitoring developments in North Korea. North Korea is able to close and secret uranium enrichment even for one-half years was not properly monitored by intelligence agencies everywhere.
Newly revealed nuclear program in 2010. Even the North Korean help in Syria's nuclear program is not monitored by the CIA, the United States intelligence agencies. Where one day Meir Dagan, head of the Mossad (Israeli intelligence service), visited President George W. Bush and national security adviser, where he angrily dropping photos of the Syrian reactor on the table. Syrian reactor was then successfully destroyed by Israel in an air raid in 2007.
Kim Jong-il in his country called upon as a leader beloved (dear leader), although he had been ruled with an iron fist. He was called aside and not care about hunger, more focus and priority to its nuclear program. His death was announced after a two-day pass seems to show that the process over the leadership or the transition process is a very dangerous thing in North Korea. Some in North Korea itself also became worried.
A few hours after the announcement, the ruling Workers Party and other state agencies issued a joint statement specifying that the generation chosen to replace Kil Kim Jong-il is the youngest son, Kim Jong Un. Her fifth child has long been prepared by his father as the next generation. Kim Jong-il has five children, where Kim Jong Un is the youngest child.
Both her brothers were not chosen because it was labeled as lazy playboy. By his father Kim Jong Un as' great successor to the revolution ". In September 2010 Kim Jong-il was given the rank of four star General and was given a position as vice chairman of the Workers' Party Central Military Commission, which is directly supervised by his father. In February 2011, he was given a senior position at the National Defence Commission, as the country's most powerful body.
The rulers in North Korea now appears to have no other choice but to accept the succession, rather than risk a schism. They realized that the younger Kim is very vulnerable in power, he has a tough task in dealing with economic difficulties the country is so severe. Intelligence officials in South Korea and Washington who managed to gather intelligence biography of Kim Jong Un, described it, the younger Kim as a young man with the height being, somewhat overweight and prone to high blood pressure and diabetes. The most important intelligence data is the nature and character stand out very much like his father. Firm, cruel and hard.
The death of Kim Jong-il has made the countries in the Asia Pacific region became restless and worried. Of particular concern is the occurrence of political instability, the possibility of power struggles. Many believe Kim Jong-un 20-year-old will face great uncertainty conditions. The greatest challenge is facing a chronic scarcity conditions that can cause a total collapse of the state.
It seems to often ill and suffered a stroke, Kim Jong-il has been away the day preparing for his son. Kim Yeon-su, professor of North Korean National Defense University said, "Kim Jong-il used the years after his stroke to build a consensus Among the elite of his son, That would be the face of North Korea after he was gone," he said.
Kim Jong Un now appear with a stylish appearance of a great leader of North Korea. Characteristic of the performance, chubby cheeks contained, cropped hair, with her eyes hard. Kim Jong Un looks very similar to his grandfather Kim Il-sung, founder of North Korea, which is still highly regarded in North Korea as a god.
Now people outside of North Korea does anyone know the last condition. Funeral of Kim Jong-il is the first test related to security and political stability, whether Kim Jong Un accepted or rejected as a third-generation successor to Kim dynasty. It remains unclear whether the military would accept the succession. Judging from the case after the death of Kim Il-sung in 1994, Kim Jong-il took three years before he was able to officially take over the reins of government.
South Korean officials are concerned because prior to the announcement of the death of Kim Jong-il, North Korea is known that the examination and testing of short-range missiles in the morning, according to South Korean intelligence report. In South Korea, which is directly adjacent to the North Korean military and now has a medium-range nuclear weapons, vigilance continues to be improved.
President Lee Myung-bak called for citizens anxious to calm down and to live as usual. President Lee reportedly been in talks with Washington and Tokyo as the Obama administration about the situation and the importance of regional stability.While the White House issued a statement saying, "We remain committed to maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula and maintain the freedom and security of our allies."
Other countries that also Russia and China are concerned. Bloomberg News quoted the news from South Korea's presidential office as saying that President Lee and his Russian colleague, Dimitri Medvedev A, agreed to work together for peace and stability on the Korean peninsula after the death of Kim Jong-il.
A spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry, Ma Zhaoxu, said "China and North Korea will work together to continue making a positive contribution in consolidating and developing the traditional friendship between the two parties, governments and communities and to maintain peace and stability of the Korean peninsula and the region."
Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura, Japan, said at a press conference, "Prime Minister Noda told a meeting of the members of the security to strengthen information-gathering efforts, working together and sharing information with the relevant countries including the United States, South Korea and China, and to prepare an unforeseen circumstances. untukdapat government hopes to take appropriate action as needed. "
Well that's the situation after the death of Kim Jong-il, North Korea fully capable of holding in his hand during the ruling. The condition can be said to be vulnerable, because the succession is happening is like a succession of kings, dictators who put forward the regime. The concern many countries is worrying because the North Korean military control of nuclear-headed missiles and position keberpihakannya unclear until now. So that in case of political instability and security, it is not impossible that would be the first victim was South Korea that will receive the first nuclear attack.
The international community understands how dangerous the event of nuclear attack. The ultimate weapon in the hands of those who are not true and abiding emotional indeed we worry about. Let's hope not.
Sumber : detiknews
*) Prayitno Ramelan, intelligence analysts and security issues. For more articles please visit http / / ramalanintelijen.net
